Sixth-ranked Bears welcome Longhorns to Waco

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/28/2012 - Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Baylor Bears continue their quest towards the top spot in the Big 12, as they welcome the Texas Longhorns to Waco for a conference showdown at the Ferrell Center.

Scott Drew's Bears are 5-2 in-conference and would like to stay within striking distance heading down the homestretch. The losses came in back-to- back affairs against Kansas and Missouri within the last 12 days. Baylor found its way back into the win column earlier this week though, topping Oklahoma in Norman, 77-65.

Rick Barnes' Longhorns have struggled to keep their heads above water in league play. The team is just 3-4 in Big 12 games and suffered three straight losses to nationally-ranked foes in Missouri, Kansas State and Kansas. Texas was able to finally able to end the skein this week with a 62-55 win over Iowa State.

Texas has played more games against Baylor than any other in the school's history. The Longhorns hold a 157-79 advantage in the series and have a 64-46 edge in games played in Waco, including a 12-1 mark under Barnes.

The Longhorns are at their best when they play tough defense and put the ball in the hands of standout guard J'Covan Brown. Texas is allowing just 64.9 ppg this year, holding foes under 40 percent shooting (.392) and outrebounding them by 4.1 rebounds per game. Brown knows how to fill up the basket. Despite shooting a modest .410 from the floor, the veteran guard leads the Big 12 in scoring at 19.1 ppg and the team in three-pointers (48). Sheldon McClellan and Myck Kabongo provide more perimeter depth with 11.5 and 9.8 ppg, respectively. Kabongo is just a freshman, but the young point guard has doled out a team- high 110 assists on the season, ranking third in the Big 12 (5.5 apg). Texas converted a mere 43.6 percent from the floor, but held the Cyclones to 33.3 percent. Kabongo led the team with 13 points in the win. Brown struggled to a 12-point outing, hitting just 3-of-16 shots from the floor. Freshman Julien Lewis added 12 points as well.

Baylor is a team that can win games at either end of the floor, evidenced by an impressive +15.2 scoring margin. The Bears are converting nearly 50 percent of their shots this year (.496) powered by a .414 showing from behind the arc (sixth nationally). All five starters are averaging double figures. Perry Jones III paces the team in both scoring (14.2 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg). Pierre Jackson (12.8 ppg) is next in the scoring column and is leads the Big 12 in assists (6.0 apg). Quincy Acy (12.7 ppg), Quincy Miller (12.5 ppg) and Brady Heslip (10.0 ppg) round out the quintet. Baylor was sharp offensively against Oklahoma, shooting 54 percent from the floor, 50 percent from behind the arc (9-of-18) and 82.4 percent from the free-throw line (14-of-17). Perry Jones was dominant in the low post, finishing with 21 points and 12 rebounds. Jackson tacked on 16 points and doled out seven assists. Acy and Anthony Jones chipped in 13 and 11 points, respectively.

Waferweb NCAA Basketball Betting News

<< Blue Devils and Red Storm collide in Durham
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the 14th straight season, the Duke Blue Devils and St. John's Red Storm will take time out of their conference slates to meet on the hardwood. The eighth-ranked Blue Devils are 5-1 in ACC play this season. T

<< No.3 Orange take on Mountaineers at Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Syracuse Orange return home to defend their top spot in the conference standings, as they welcome in the West Virginia Mountaineers for a Big East showdown at the Carrier Dome. Jim Boeheim's O

<< No. 12 UNLV comes calling on Air Force
USAFA, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Closing in on the 20-win plateau, the 12th-ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels take their act on the road tonight as they clash with the Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference action at Clune Arena. Since losing to

<< Gaels and Cougars meet in WCC tussle
Provo, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ranked 21st in the nation this week, the Saint Mary's-CA Gaels continue to battle through the rest of the West Coast Conference as the team clashes with the BYU Cougars at the Marriott Center in Provo tonight. O

<< Colorado State entertains No. 13 San Diego State
Fort Collins, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last of the unbeatens in the Mountain West Conference, the 13th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs hit the road this afternoon to challenge the Colorado State Rams at Moby Arena in Fort Collins. Not only ar

No.2 Tigers tangle with Red Raiders >>
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Missouri Tigers set their sights on getting back on track, as they welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to Columbia this afternoon, for a Big 12 matchup at Mizzou Arena. Frank Haith's Tigers ar

Cavs and Pack square off Raleigh >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams continuing to jockey for position within the ACC meet in Raleigh tonight, as the 19th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers take on the NC State Wolfpack. Virginia is an impressive 16-3 this season, but the team

Columbus to host 2013 NHL All-Star game >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Columbus and the Blue Jackets will host the NHL's All-Star festivities in 2013, the league announced Saturday. The showcase, which includes the skills competition and All-Star game, will take place on th

Kaman could be a keeper elsewhere >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You can forget about blowing the whistle on ageism in sports. After all, it's not only accepted it's expected. If you were wondering why the New Orleans Hornets are actively trying to trade center Chris

Davis moves Rangers closer to the top >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A goal in each half from Steven Davis propelled Rangers to a 4-0 win over Hibernian at the Ibrox Stadium on Saturday, moving the club to within a point of leaders Celtic. Davis scored the lo

Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.